The IPCC’s Rajendra Pachauri (left) and Christopher Field at a press conference in Yokohama in 2014. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.” 2014: fifth IPCC reportīy the time of the IPCC’s fifth report in 2014, the reality, cause and consequences of global heating were glaringly obvious: “Human influence on the climate system is clear. But the global financial crash that followed diverted the world’s attention. Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chair, said: “I hope this report will shock people, governments into taking more serious action.” The IPCC and the US vice-president, Al Gore, were jointly awarded the Nobel peace prize in 2007. Not acting was the expensive option, the report made clear: “The evidence leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting … delay would be dangerous and much more costly”. The fourth IPCC report, in 2007, was the moment when humanity’s responsibility for global heating became all but certain: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal … Eleven of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest years record.”ĭenial was therefore left to those with vested interests, but the report also warned against delay: “Delayed emission reductions significantly constrain the opportunities to achieve lower stabilisation levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts.” “The report has starkly confirmed the threat posed by global warming – the stakes are high for us, and for our planet,” said the then foreign minister for the United Arab Emirates, which has continued to be a major oil producer and will host the latest UN climate summit, Cop28, in December. “Greenhouse gas forcing in the 21st century could set in motion large-scale, high-impact, non-linear and potentially abrupt changes in physical and biological systems over the coming decades to millennia.” By 2022, scientists had concluded that five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed. The report also warned of triggering climate tipping points. It sounded the alarm that those least responsible for emissions would suffer the most: “The impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately upon developing countries and the poor persons within all countries.” The third report also indicated that global heating was already wreaking harm: “The rising socioeconomic costs related to weather damage and to regional variations in climate suggest increasing vulnerability to climate change.” Ratcliffe-on-Soara power station in the UK, pictured in 2001. “Detection and attribution studies consistently find evidence for an anthropogenic signal in the climate record of the last 35 to 50 years.” In terms of the cause of global heating, humanity was in the dock. “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities,” the third IPCC report in 2001 found. The then UK environment minister, John Gummer (now Lord Deben), said at the time: “There will be far-reaching effects on natural systems and human society for generations to come.” 2001: third IPCC report The report made a plea, that was to be ignored: “Where there is a lack of full scientific certainty, should: ‘take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimise the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects’.” “During the past few decades … potentially serious changes have been identified, including an increase in some regions in the incidence of extreme high-temperature events, floods and droughts,” it said. The report also made plain that global heating was a serious danger to the world: “Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant loss of life.” The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” ![]() Photograph: Peter Essick/Aurora/Getty Imagesīy 1995, the second IPCC report had started to point the finger firmly at human-caused emissions for rising global temperatures: “Global mean surface temperature has increased by between about 0.3 and 0.6C since the late 19th century. ![]() In the mid-90s there were no plants growing at the site. A researcher near Palmer Station, Antarctica, in 2004.
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